Typical Day Detection for Long Term Price Forecasting

Application of a New Hybrid Method for Day-Ahead Energy Price Forecasting in Iranian Electricity Market

Abstract- In a typical competitive electricity market, a large number of short-term and long-term contracts are set on basis of energy price by an Independent System Operator (ISO). Under such circumstances, accurate electricity price forecasting can play a significant role in improving the more reasonable bidding strategies adopted by the electricity market participants. So, they cannot only r...

Forecasting day ahead electricity price using ARMA methods

Aggregating Strategies for Long-term Forecasting

The article is devoted to investigating the application of aggregating algorithms to the problem of the long-term forecasting. We examine the classic aggregating algorithms based on the exponential reweighing. For the general Vovk’s aggregating algorithm we provide its generalization for the long-term forecasting. For the special basic case of Vovk’s algorithm we provide its two modifications f...

Singular Spectral Analysis Applied for Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting

In this paper, the data analysis and short term price forecasting in Iran electricity market as a market with pay-as-bid payment mechanism has been considered. The proposed method is a modified singular spectral analysis (SSA) method. SSA decomposes a time series into its principal components i.e. its trend and oscillation components, which are then used for time series forecasting effectively....

Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing ...